426 Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos Núm. 2 / 2013 still a starting point for our analysis. In our paper, we will analyse the balance of power between the United States and China. With the disappearance of the USSR, the bipolar power balance has been replaced by a situation in which the dominance of the United States is indisputable, but not hegemonic, as it is implicitly contested by a number of powers, including China, which is worth a special mention on account of its demographic and economic weight. The relative stagnation of Japan’s economy, Russia’s decline in power since the collapse of the Soviet Union and India’s limited presence have led analysts to study the balance of power between China and the U.S. From the perspective that concerns us here, any changes in the power balance will give rise to changes in U.S. strategy. When studying these changes, instead of looking at GDP forecasts for China and the United States, we are going to start with what is a highly topical subject in international economic literature today: what have been termed global imbalances. We will show how a detailed study of the aforementioned is of particular relevance to the matter at hand because it enables us to anticipate trends in some of the macroeconomic variables of the two countries and their effects on military spending and its composition. In the second part of the article we will review the strategy of the two armies and key figures on the armed forces in both countries in order to demonstrate the remarkable difference between the two - even today - and how they are the product of two different models with different strengths and weaknesses. In the third part, we will explain what global imbalances are and why they occur, look at relevant data and trends since the start of the century, and forecasts by experts in the subject. We will then analyse the relationship between the Chinese economy and that of the United States as a result of these imbalances, and assess why they are not sustainable. In the final section we will study the main changes we can expect to see in the Chinese economy over the next few years and how these will influence global imbalances and, therefore, the military power of the two countries in the medium term. In doing so, we will demonstrate how the power gap between the U.S. and Chinese military is going to shrink, and how this will influence U.S. military strategy, as we are already beginning to see. Finally, we will present our conclusions and lines of analysis that are worth exploring in the future. 2. The Armed Forces in China and the United States. In order to assess whether military spending projections for the two countries are consistent with their defence strategies and macroeconomic forecasts, we must first analyse the current situation from these two perspectives. In this section, we will
REVISTA IEEE 2
To see the actual publication please follow the link above