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Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies Núm. 9 / 2017 http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee 308 al-Nusra attacked several Hezbollah checkpoints near Brital, close to the border, but were ultimately defeated. However, new jihadist attacks were waged, such as the one launched near Ras Baalbek in early 201548. Indeed, Arsal and the surroundings have become extremely dangerous for the inhabitants of the area, with groups affiliated with IS and al-Nusra exercising a degree of de facto control over part of the territory. However, the Beirut authorities do not want to take the confrontation too far so as not to lose their influence over the Sunni in the area. The Syrian refugees have also been affected by the instability, sometimes collaborating with jihadist groups and sometimes being the target of violence by the security forces or even Lebanese civilians. Furthermore, the existence of this area outside the control of the authorities continues to pose a clear threat to Lebanese security, as evidenced by the attack on the Burj al-Barajneh neighbourhood of Beirut in November 2015 (claimed by IS), which appears to have originated in the vicinity of Arsal49. The second zone of jihadist instability is the North Governorate, including the city of Tripoli. However, it should be pointed out that most Lebanese and Palestinian jihadists have traditionally tried to avoid open confrontation with the LAF and have confined their actions in Lebanon to firing at Jabal Mohsen, after which they have always taken a cautious approach. Their experiences in Al Dinniyeh and Fatah al-Islam have demonstrated the risks of a clash with the State and they have therefore chosen to confine their violent activities to more favourable environments, such as Syria at the moment. Nevertheless, since the departure of the Syrian troops in 2005, there has been a security vacuum in the area due to the ambivalence of the Future Movement, which has chosen to avoid restraining the more violent Salafi for fear of losing a share of their civilian support. In addition, they suspect that there are “dormant cells” with links to the Islamic State or Al-Qaeda that would be willing to confront the authorities when the time is right. Furthermore, some members of traditional jihadist groups (such as Asbat al-Ansar) appear to be getting closer to the Islamic State or al-Nusra, which tend to be seen as strong allies that could change the balance of power in the country50. Tensions rose in Tripoli in August 2014 when a group of Sunni clerics organised a demonstration to protest against the conduct of the LAF in the city and several intensifies between ISIS and Lebanon”, The New York Times, 04/08/2014. Hezbollah did not take part in their expulsion to avoid giving the impression of a denominational conflict. 48  MALOUF, Carol and SHERLOCK, Ruth, “Islamic State fighters mass on Lebanon border and threaten to launch attacks across it”, The Daily Telegraph, 18/01/2015. L´ORIENT LE JOUR, “L´armée a repoussé au prix de lourdes pertes (8 morts) une ataque des jihadistes à Ras Baalbek”, L´Orient Le Jour, 26/01/2015. 49  INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP, “Arsal”, op. cit., pp. 10-12. 50  BERTI, Benedetta, “Tensions in Tripoli: The Syrian Crisis and Its Impact in Lebanon”, INSS Insight, no. 336, 2012, Tel Aviv, p. 2. RABIL, op. cit., pp. 213-224.

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