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263 Pedro Luis Rubio Terés The iranian elites as perceived from their society and… ideological assault from the non-elites. In the same manner, they contributed to «slow down economic reform and democratization»55. Economic context: «the oil curse» By the same token as the monarchies in the Arabian Peninsula or the former Soviet republics in Central Asia, the oil yield data56 remain under government control to avoid social demands57. This, in turn, fosters the image of political leaders who have a unique wisdom in managing the country’s resources, far from the mundane matters to which ordinary citizens are to be devoted and hence aggravating the alienation between society and elites. However, the international isolation that the state suffered throughout the beginning of the 21st century and the drop in oil prices acutely jeopardizes this capacity for dominance. This chronic instability endured by economies with a lack of diversification (coined in 1977 as the «Dutch disease») promotes all kinds of short-term policies. To that respect, some authors agree that the pragmatist and conservative factions have motivated the main lines of the late foreign policy58. This issue was thoroughly addressed by Friedman in his «first law of petro-politics», which asserted that the price of oil in the international market is inversely correlated (in a one-sense only) with democratic freedom59. Hypothetically, an increase in oil revenues provides a wider room for maneuver for political repression, whereas the opposite economic context would open the door for political freedom60. Friedman’s postulates are nonetheless based in the common belief that an increase in the GNP results in higher public expense (even in autocratic regimes), thus relieving social tension and rendering violent repression less necessary. Hence, they are only applicable in autocratic regimes with a low level of repression (which as of Wintrobe’s remaining above 100 USD for almost 2 years. TIME, «Iran: another crisis for the Shah», 1978. Available at: http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,946149,00.html. 55  RAKEL, E., 2008, op. cit., p. 35. 56  CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY. The World Factbook: Iran, 2017. Available at: https:// www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ir.html. 57  FINANCIAL TRIBUNE. «OPEC data shows Iran’s oil output within limits», 2017. Available at: https://financialtribune.com/articles/energy/59612/opec-data-show-irans-oil-output-within-limits. 58  SMYTH, GARETH. «A realignment of Iran’s political factions underway as elections loom», 2015, The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/dec/11/realignment-irans- political-factions-before-2017-elections. 59  FRIEDMAN, Thomas. «The first law of petropolitics», Foreign policy, vol. 154 (3), 2006, p. 30. 60  Iran is ranked 165th out of 180 countries in terms of media freedom as of: REPORTERS WITHOUT BORDERS. 2017 World Press Freedom Index. Available at: https://rsf.org/en/ranking. http://revista.ieee.es

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