513 Esther del Campo García The armed forces and public opinion in latin america With the exception of Uruguay, Venezuela, the Dominican Republic, Bolivia, Brazil and Ecuador, the rest of the countries in the region see those questioned express levels of support of over 50 -on a scale of 0 to 100- for the idea that military coups may occur under conditions of high levels of crime. Honduras and Mexico top the list. One aspect worth underscoring is the exception of the Honduran case against the backdrop there of the fall of President Zelaya in June 2009 as the result of military intervention. Since as far back as 2008, Honduras has become, “the single case in Latin America with the highest level of triply dissatisfied citizens, with relatively low support for democracy and with high support for coups, confrontational political methods, and rebellion” (Seligson and Booth, 2009).38 As has been stated above,39 it seems clear that individuals who are most affected by considerable levels of insecurity are also most likely to support extreme measures to combat crime, for example military coups. Evidence thus suggests that violent crime in Latin America is such a severe cause for concern that citizens are “willing to sacrifice certain freedoms in order to feel safer”.40 Without prejudice to the aforementioned, the most striking part is that, in general, the repeated institutional crises of the past decade have not been orchestrated militarily nor have they been utilised in order to instigate a military regime or “solution”. This does not detract from the fact, however, that in various cases the level of commitment shown in the crisis by the army or part thereof could be more significant (e.g. the case of Honduras). Similarly, data from FLACSO (2010)41 confirm, more forcefully perhaps, that Latin Americans are not willing to support a coup d’état and a military government. Therefore, 77% of Latin Americans questioned (as opposed to the 63% indicated by the Latinobarómetro in 2010) think that their country is not predisposed to a coup d’état. Of these, Chile (94%), Uruguay (90%) and Costa Rica (84%) are most notable. A second group of countries show mid-range values: Venezuela (70%), Brazil and Nicaragua (67%), Colombia (66%) -in fact the exact mean value- and Honduras (60%), where a constitutional president was recently ousted by the Congress and the Supreme Court. 38 M.A. Seligson and J. A. Booth (2009), “Predicting Coups? Democratic Vulnerabilities, The AmericasBarometer and The 2009 Honduran Crisis”, AmericasBarometer Insights, 2009 (Special Report on Honduras). Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), Vanderbilt University, p. 4. 39 J.M. Cruz (2009), “Public Insecurity in Central America and Mexico”,AmericasBarometer Insights Series, Vol. 28, Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP), University of Vanderbilt. O.J. Pérez (2009), op. cit. 40 J.S. Tulchin and M. Ruthenburg (2006),“Toward a Society Under Law”, in Tulchin, Joseph S. and Meg Ruthenburg (eds.), Toward a Society Under Law: Citizens and Their Police in Latin America. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson International Center, p. 5. 41 FLACSO (2010), op. cit.
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