Alberto Gallego Gordon The structural causes of instability and conflict... 327 INTRODUCTION This analysis is based on a combined approach taking into account both quali-tative and quantitative aspects. The quantitative analysis reflects a strong bias in favour of a wide range of sources, all of which are of an official nature. Thus, the statements and claims are based on empirical data, as opposed to the majority of security analyses of the Sahel that do without such documentary support. The analysis is underpinned by a balanced contribution of primary as well as secondary sources, fulfilling the scientific requirements generally applied to this field of studies, i.e. a combination of International Relations, in a narrow sense, and studies of Security and Defence1. The approach follows the tenets of the Realist School in studying a region exposed to multiple challenges, risks and threats2. The African Continent has been invariably linked to instability and conflicts, espe-cially since most countries obtained their independence during the 1960s. Among the multiple factors of instability one might highlight ethnic, religious and geopolitical rivalries as well as ideological extremism or extreme climatic conditions and a popu-lation explosion. Together, these factors have given rise to poverty, famine, systemic corruption, organised crime and terrorism. Likewise, the political instability caused by frequent violent3 government changes has harmed the economic and social develo-pment of most of these countries. The existing situation of instability in the Middle East due to the conflict between Israel and its neighbours has only been heightened by the post-war situations in Afgha-nistan and Iraq and the surge of the Islamic State -a situation that was aggravated by the so-called “Arab Spring” which, far from achieving its goals, has generally provoked more instability in the Maghreb. The fall of Colonel Gaddafi’s regime has practically turned Libya into a failed state allowing the Islamic State to also gain a foothold. In sub-Saharan Africa the situation does not appear to be better. The fall of the Gadda-fi regime caused the return of thousands of Tuareg soldiers to Mali which in turn fuelled the independence revolt rising out of the Azawad. This was joined by groups following a jihadist ideology, thus endangering not only Mali but the region as a whole. In the north of Nigeria and around Lake Chad, for years the population has been suffering Boko Haram’s terror with successive military actions seemingly unable to remove its threat. 1 CUETO NOGUERAS, Carlos; JORDÁN ENAMORADO, Javier. (2001). “Introducción a los estudios de seguridad y defensa”. Granada, Comares. 2 GARCÍA PICAZO, Paloma. (2012) “La investigación del medio internacional. Fundamentos teóricos y conceptuales, métodos y técnicas”. Madrid, Tecnos. 3 BALLESTEROS MARTÍN, Miguel Ángel. “Análisis geopolítico del Sahel”. Cuadernos de Estrategia 176. Sahel 2015, origen de desafíos y oportunidades. IEEE. Spanish Ministry of Defence, p. 11. On http:// www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/cuadernos/CE_176.pdf. Date of reference 15/01/18. Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos n.º 12 - Año: 2018 - Págs.: 325 a 366
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