Emilia José Peña Ruiz The iranian nuclear issue and game theory a cooperative solution were extended. Even so, it was necessary to find scenarios, common areas that facilitated cooperation and forged a solution where all the parties involved would obtain optimal gains to guarantee its durability. These types of games introduce the political environment into the problems of game theory and that is why its use is analysed in situations where the context is vital and the scenarios so complicated that reference to exogenous factors is required39. A priori, we understand that the study of influencing variables emanating from energy, political and security factors can explain the reasons for the IC’s change of strategy in relation to Iran that resulted two years later in the signing of the JCPOA. Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos n.º 12 - Año: 2018 - Págs.: 145 a 175 379 367 395 FACTORS EXOGENOUS TO THE NUCLEAR QUESTION As we indicated at the outset, one of the questions that this study aims to solve is to determine whether there are other factors outside the nuclear legal framework that can influence nuclear negotiation. The application of Game Theory to our analysis and, in particular, “games in multiple areas”, underscores the need to analyse which contextual factors influence all possible subgames. To answer this question, we pro-pose a close examination of the political, energy and security factors as elements that can redefine the influencing variables in nuclear negotiation. The approach that we have adopted in our research is that nuclear negotiation can be influenced by factors external to nuclear policy, such as regional stability, political autonomy and natural resources in the region. The energy factor According to the BP Energy Outlook 2017, Iranian gas reserves total 1,183 trillion cu-bic feet (Tcf), or 18% of the entire world reserves, followed by Russia with 1139.6 Tcf (17.3%); Qatar con 858.1 Tcf (13%); Turkmenistan con 617.3 Tcf (9.4%) and the US with 307.7 Tcf (4.7%). Close behind are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and China. Of all these countries, only the US is a member of the OECD40. In its 2010 report, the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) in-dicated that only a limited number of geo-strategic players truly affect extra-regional developments, as far as natural gas flows are concerned. The behaviour of these agents can also determine the level of internationalisation of the natural gas sector of a pro- 39 TSEBELIS, George. Nested Games. Rational…, op. cit., p. 58- 61 40 BP, “BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2017”, Workbook. https://www.bp.com/ content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world- energy-2017-natural-gas.pdf
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