P E R S P E C T I V E
SPANISH INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
50 YEARS
watching the world change
Francisco José Dacoba Cerviño
General Director of the IEEE (Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies)
This April marks the 50th anniversary of the Spanish
Institute for Strategic Studies, established by decree in
1970 as an integral part of what was then the recently
established Centre for Higher National Defence Studies
(CESEDEN) dating back to 1964. Today, with the perspective given
by half a century, it is fair to acknowledge the wisdom of those
authorities who were well ahead of their time and foresaw the
opportunity for Spanish society and its military to have a meeting
forum in the 1960s, the CESEDEN, and almost at the same time
include in such Centre an institution devoted to strategic studies
and analysis, the IEEE.
From an international standpoint, these 50 years have been
intense and decisive. Events have taken place at break-neck speed
giving way to a profound reconfiguration of global geopolitical
balances. Various factors have contributed both to the changes
and to the speed with which they have occurred. Globalization
is not by its very nature a peaceful phenomenon. Globalization
has blurred borders and narrowed distances, thus increasing
the possibility of a confrontation between actors who were once
far apart and, as a reaction effect, today there is a powerful trend
towards regionalization, fragmentation,
nationalism and the exacerbation of ethnic
groups. Once the health emergency
caused by SARS-CoV-19 is over, States
will very likely have protectionist and
renationalization reactions in order to
protect at least part of the supply lines that
are currently too delocalized.
New disruptive technologies provide the
necessary tools for changes in our way of
life to occur almost helter-skelter. We, the citizens, feel overwhelmed
and States are overcome by a series of faits accomplis they have
had no time to comprehend or include in their respective legal
frameworks. Electronic commerce, collaborative economy or major
technology companies, operating in a transnational ecosystem,
evade governmental fiscal control. If it was already proving difficult
to enforce internationally accepted legislation in international waters
or the air, it will probably be even more complicated to regulate
the use of outer space or, worse still, cyberspace. The implications
in the security field are obvious. This brief list of determinant
factors transforming the current international order is completed
by demographic trends, extreme weather events, the spread of
pandemics, global trade, social networks, the emergence of new
non-state actors, terrorism that recognizes no borders, etc.
In its still short life, the Institute has coexisted with three different
international orders; the bipolar world of the Cold War gave way,
after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to a brief phase of American
hegemony and this, in turn, has now led to a multipolar order, albeit
asymmetrical since the capabilities of the major powers, as well as
their weaknesses, differ substantially from one another. The speed
of change is compounded by uncertainty.
We are aware that the model based on
the standards taken on by the international
community is openly questioned, that
multilateralism is facing a difficult time
when confronted with the undeniable thrust
of unilateral initiatives, if not widespread
nationalism. Slowly but surely, we have
witnessed the breakdown of international
governance systems in the areas of trade,
climate and arms control. The most recent
In these decades,
globalization has
blurred borders
and narrowed
distances
40 Revista Española de Defensa April 2020