I N T E R N A T I O N A L A N A L Y S I S
countries’ health systems are huge and are reflected in the lack
of means considered essential to overcome this disease, such as
ventilators or the necessary tests for diagnosis.
Moreover, COVID-19 also threatens to condemn millions of
Africans to poverty, as it is assumed that the continent will fall into its
first recession in the last 25 years, a particularly serious prediction in
a region where one out of three
people live below the global
poverty line. Therefore, hunger
might rise strongly again in
areas that seemed to foresee
a brighter future, since besides
the coronavirus pandemic
we must also add locust
infestations in East Africa or the
current drought in the south of
the continent, not to mention
the persistence of diseases in
many African countries, such
as malaria or AIDS, or conflicts
that have been frozen for years.
IMPACT ON EUROPE
All of the above leads us to
believe that we cannot rule out a
potential resurgence in irregular
migration that will converge
towards Europe as soon
as the measures restricting
mobility are relaxed. This
cocktail of a health, economic,
social and food crisis could
push thousands of Africans to
seek greater security within
the Schengen area. In fact,
fear of the virus has already
triggered movements of a
certain intensity in other parts
of the world where borders are
more permeable, such as those
occurring between Iraq and
Afghanistan or between the latter and Pakistan.
Clearly, irregular migration is not a new problem. The 2015
refugee crisis, which shook the foundations of the European
Union, is still fresh in our minds. That year, the European citizens
themselves witnessed the emergence of “many existential and
conceptual anxieties and fears about their identity, security and
well-being” (as published in an article in the journal Alternatives
by analysts Ayse Ceyhan and Anastassi Tsoukala) with some very
unexpected consequences, such as Brexit. The reaction to that
migration crisis five years ago generated a change in approach
that distanced the Union from the soft power model to adjust to
the strategy of a stronger Europe. Therefore, in this context, it was
decided to implement a military operation to counter the mafias
trafficking in migrants, the already extinct Operation Sophia. The
strengthening of the European Border and Coast Guard Agency,
which is currently involved in an extensive recruitment process, is
another indicator of the road taken towards the further securitization
of the Union’s external borders.
Another Common Security
and Defence Policy operation
has recently been launched in
the Mediterranean Sea, known
as Operation Irini. However, on
this occasion, the main task
is to implement the UN arms
embargo in Libya, while the
dismantling of the business
model of human trafficking
networks has become a
secondary task. If there is one
thing we learned in 2015, it is
that prevention is better than
cure. In fact, the European
Union institutions and bodies
were heavily criticized for
implementing a reactive rather
than a preventive policy to
address the issue of irregular
migration. However, it now
seems that this matter has once
again taken a back seat on the
European leaders’ agendas.
The coronavirus has
caused a new form of
insecurity and has contributed
to intensifying others already
existing in the sphere of
economy, food, health, as well
as personal and community
security. European leaders
Circo Fusco/EFE
have become aware of the new threat. Following the video
conference held by EU defence ministers on 12 May, the High
Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy, Mr. Josep Borrell, said that “it is clear that this crisis will
have far-reaching consequences for our societies, our economies,
but also for our security and defence policy”.
One of the factors that might contribute to negatively increase
the consequences referred to by the High Representative is the
poor management of irregular migration when it reoccurs at our
external borders. L
August 2020 Revista Española de Defensa 33