286 Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies N. 6 / 2015 4.1. Phases of the method of analysis of the stability and instability of geopolitical regions The steps to develop are the following: • 1st PHASE: Define the geopolitical region to be studied. • 2nd PHASE: Gathering of data and its interpretation to finally select the variable data that are reliable and useful for the study. This implies the selection of variables; establishing the way to quantify them and organizing them by factors. This will lead to the analysis phase. • 3rd PHASE: Analysis of the chosen factors, which will normally be: • Physical. • Human. • Economic. • Energy. • Military. • Historical. • Personality of the leaders. • Another factor of interest (according to the aim of the study). The analysis will determine which are the systems of balance or imbalance of power in the region studied. What is the main factor of destabilization will also be established, as this will serve to delineate the priority elements for the analysis and follow-up of the geopolitical regions. • 4th PHASE: This is the phase of synthesis, where the cohesion factors and the factors of instability that favor the conflict are established. In addition, for each element of cohesion or instability, the variables and their indicators must be established, as they make up the signals that will facilitate the assessment of the regional events, as well as their influence on the risks and threats. These variables must preferably be measurable to facilitate their follow-up. The indicators may be the result of combining the data of various related variables. The observation, throughout time, of these indicators will provide us the trends, which will allow us to make projections for the future. • 5th PHASE: Diagnosis phase in which the possible future scenarios are established, their consequences and probability of occurrence. This will be reflected in a diagram that will allow us to establish a comparative evaluation of risks and threats, as we will see in Section 5. http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee
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