297 Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Method for the analysis of geopolitical regions... COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF RISKS AND THREATS Little probable Highly probable http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee Large Impact on national interests Probability of occurrence Author’s elaboration Small A C B D E F Risk Threat 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 Trust on the assessment 1. Highly reliable 2. Moderately reliable 3. Low reliable Diagram 5 The result of the representation of risks and threats on the Cartesian axes is that upon dividing into four quadrants, we can see that those which are more probable and that would have more impact on national interests are grouped in the upper right quadrant; therefore, they must be given priority when adopting measures to address them. On the contrary, the risks and threats grouped in the lower left quadrant are the least probable and those which would have the least impact; therefore, these are the ones that require less attention. 6. EMPIRICAL RESEARCH An empirical investigation to test the degree of reliability of the Method of Analysis of Geopolitical Regions (MARG) was carried out, taking advantage of a paper of studies of geopolitical regions that the students in the class of 2012-2013 at the Armed Forces General Staff College completed. The students were divided into small groups so each of them had to do a geopolitical region analysis using as factors, the following: the physical, the human, the economic, in which energy was included, the socio-political, and the military, following the MARG. They were given a month’s deadline to conduct the study, to deliver it, and to have it be corrected and evaluated by the professors of the Strategy and International Relations Department, and later, half the students gave a presentation of their work to the rest of the students.
Revista del IEEE 6
To see the actual publication please follow the link above