329 Carlos Martí Sempere An evolutionary view of defence 6.2 An imperfect selection mechanism Secondly, the information available to make the choice could be imperfect. This tends to occur with the evaluation and identification of the causes of lower levels of efficiency than expected in military operations. If information is lacking and the causes as well as the means of bringing about increased efficiency levels cannot be identified readily, wrong choices can be made, as was the case of the air bombings of the World War II mentioned before. A similar problem could arise when the business proposals for a given development are incorrectly evaluated, either through lack of objectivity or, in the case of future projects, unforeseen difficulties were not taken into account. Another important source of bias in decision-making regarding the evolution of military capabilities can be political, social or cultural factors. One could quote multiple examples. A primary example is the restriction of the budget equally shared across three services (air, sea and land), instead of being based on their real contribution to defence, which would lead to an inappropriate allocation of resources. A second example is the aversion to certain arms, as was the case of the UK regarding submarines in the World Wars, as attacks on civil ships were looked upon as an act of terror. A similar case is the use of arms producing large-scale suffering, such as chemical weapons. A third example is the use of air attacks on the civil population, equally a subject of debate for some time. A fourth example would be the kind of operations used in the Vietnam War where the American military forces could have increased their tactical efficiency through closer engagement with the enemy, instead of relying on indirect fire. However, the price could probably have been greater casualties and less political effectiveness.42 A final example is the awarding of projects to certain firms in order to promote regional development, even if they are not necessarily the most needed. Choice can also be biased when the private and social benefits or costs of a given option differ substantially. In this case, the decision-maker may choose an option that is not necessarily the best from a social point of view. Thus, for example, a new capability could require the development of new organisational structures, which tends to be a source of conflict, as commented previously, and tends to generate opposition to the development of a new capability. A similar example could arise when a company offers to supply a product for defence with an improper performance-price ratio. This case can easily be found where there is a lack of competition and the absence of a yardstick for comparing options, while an aversion to risk-taking means that a given product is preferred despite the disproportion between performance http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee and cost. 42 Millet, A. R., W. Murray, and K. H. Watman. “The Effectiveness of Military Organisations”. International Security, 1986: 37-71.
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