443 Javier Pastor Sánchez Life Cycle Cost Estimation Procedure for a Weapon... most costly to implement. You begin at the lowest definable level of the WBS and cost estimates are made for each task. The most appropriate estimation technique is used for each one. 3. Parametric estimates. In this type of estimates, cost parameters are used that are calculated using linear regressions or other statistical or mathematical methods obtained from historical data stored in databases linking costs with the characteristic physical units of a product (weight, volume, speed, etc.). Parametric estimates are used in studies for which the level of system definition is not very high. Commercial data is not available to carry out market valuations or there is little time to do so. 4. Estimation by analogy (top-down): This method makes a direct comparison of the product with other similar products for which the technical specifications, costs and prices are known. After making adjustments, and depending on the similarity of the product, the cost is calibrated in line with these adjustments and inflation, variation of indices, the number of units to be produced, geographical area etc. are introduced. 5. Prospective methods: strategic foresight studies the forces bringing about change, endeavouring to identify variables and predict their evolution. When there is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding a project, or when it is complex or has an implementation period spanning a large amount of time, prospective analysis should be used. The main difficulty that arises with this method is that the majority of these projects are unique and similar past designs that could serve as a reference point do not exist. The way in which one undertakes a prospective method is merely indicated in the elements presented below and we shall not describe it since this oversteps the purpose of this paper: A) Expert opinion. B) Creativity group techniques: Delphi method. C) Scenarios method. D) Relevance trees. E) Structural analysis. F) Cross-impact matrix. G) Morphological analysis. http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee
Revista del IEEE 6
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