546 Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies N. 5 / 2015 Final Act.12 The organisations that resulted from these documents, the United Nations and the OSCE, are examples of the existence of mechanisms within international legislation that are designed to prevent armed conflict. Today, prospective or foresight studies provide us with the scientific tools required for work on any social system, with a view to guiding its evolution towards desired scenarios.13 In all armed conflict there is an evolutionary process prior to construction, known as the escalation of conflict. Escalation confirms that the risk of the conflict turning into an armed conflict exists. What today is a risk, may be a danger tomorrow and then a threat to peace the day after tomorrow.14 When this risk exists, we may say that the conflict in question must constitute a security concern, yet when this risk begins to endanger or threaten peace, the issue becomes a challenge that may easily entail preventive measures that require the use of force. In this case, conflicts pose a danger or a threat to security when they lead to preventive action involving diplomatic and economic measures and, ultimately, the use of force. If a procedure were to exist that allowed for the assessment of the risk of a social conflict becoming an armed conflict, we would have enough leeway to make use of the instruments afforded in international law and prospective studies in order to alter the conditions surrounding the conflict in question, whilst always striving to prevent it turning violent. The issue of the prevention of armed conflict, as we had anticipated, has not yet been resolved. The analysis that we carry out over the course of this article shall be dedicated specifically to the process of evolution observed in those social conflicts that spiral into armed conflict. Over the course of this article, we will aim to demonstrate, from a transdisciplinary perspective, a research path that may presumably be pursued as part of the search of answers to the question of to what degree it is possible to prevent this from happening. 12 Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe Helsinki Final Act online OSCE Helsinki 1 August 1975 accessed 3 February 2015 Available at https://www.osce.org/mc/39501?download=true 13 BAS, Enric. Prospectiva. Como usar el pensamiento sobre el futuro. Prospective. How to use thinking about the future. Barcelona, Editorial Ariel S.A., 1999, 2002 edit., pp 56-59. 14 BALLESTEROS, Miguel A., “Las estrategias de Seguridad y Defensa” Security and Defence Strategies in BALLESTEROS, Miguel A., et al Fundamentos de la Estrategia para el siglo XXI Foundations of the Strategy for the 21st Century Madrid, Ministry of Defence, 2004, ISBN 84- 9781-087-2 pp. 17-18. http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee
REVISTA IEEE 5
To see the actual publication please follow the link above