552 Journal of the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies N. 5 / 2015 Terrorism is conflict in origin according to our definition. Yet, on the flipside, we cannot consider it social conflict according to our own definition, because this implies the opposition of a group to a system and not to another social group. The narrative discourse of terrorists will see the selection of the target groups for their attacks that best match the current needs of this discourse with a view to producing an effect on the population they claim to support against the system.46 The fact that terrorism materialises as attacks perpetrated by one social group against another leads us to believe that this in fact consists of two opposing groups when in reality it is one group acting against a system of social organisation. By delimiting the problem in this way, this article will focus its analysis upon the process whereby social conflict evolves into armed conflicts in the cases where this occurs. THE DEBATE ON FORECASTING ARMED CONFLICT It remains the case that when we analyse a social conflict that runs the risk of escalating into armed conflict, we observe conflicts that lead us to draw conclusions about the evolution of this conflict, almost from a deterministic perspective. We naturally tend to apply reasoning, based on previous experience, to predict what will ensue.47 Though, on the other hand, polemology warns us that it is impossible to prevent war on the basis of its root causes.48 Over the following paragraphs we will try to explain why this is the case with a view to reaching a conclusion as to whether there is any leeway to prospectively anticipate49 armed conflicts resulting from social conflict. The study of numerous armed conflicts that can be classified as those that began as social conflicts (Afghanistan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Palestine, Spanish Civil War, Darfur, Rwanda, Somalia etc. ) corroborates the recurrence of circumstances prior to the conflict. Examples of these recurrent circumstances are the existence of populist Guerra contra la Violencia, Madrid, Triacastela, 2014, ISBN 978-84-95840-87-5 p 64-65. 46 Ibid. p 65-66. 47 BAS, Enric. Opus cit p 40-44. 48 AZNAR, Federico. Las nuevas guerras. Validez de la polemología para el análisis de los conflictos del siglo XXI. New wars. Validity of polemology for the analysis of conflicts in the 21st Century Doctoral Thesis. Madrid. Political Sciences and Sociology Faculty of the Complutense University of Madrid. 2009 p 58. 49 BAS, Enric. Opus cit p 40-44. http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee
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