309 Ángel Gómez de Ágreda Climate Change in the Arctic: Beyond the North Pole The great maritime routes One might think that the mere opening up of the polar navigation routes13, and in particular the North-eastern Route14, that makes its way along the Russian Arctic coasts connecting the Atlantic and the Pacific, should be sufficient to ensure the dynamic driving force that these fluvial currents could exert over their respective basins. Nevertheless, other factors are also required in order to benefit from the multiple advantages presented by these rivers. The importance of such development is indeed difficult to evaluate. Not all analysts are in agreement even on the spin-off that a North-eastern Route itself could generate. Indeed, it is argued that the greatest part of South-South shipping trade will still continue to take place along the Indian Ocean and the use of the Cape of Good Hope route15, as required. The impact that Arctic thawing could bring about for the regions irrigated by the great Siberian rivers will be closely linked to the general development of the region and the use of the coastal zone as one of the principal axes of world trade. In the article mentioned in note16, Humpert and Raspotnik argue that out of China’s top ten trading partners, only Germany could potentially benefit from shorter and more efficient shipping routes through the Arctic. However, their study does not does not appear to include other relevant factors, such as security of routes and the possible geopolitical changes that could come about in coming years, coinciding with the melting of the Arctic sea ice. In any case, while it is true that the importation of raw materials to the major Asian manufacturing centres will proceed mainly from regions situated in more meridian latitudes, the foreseeable evolution of Chinese industry –relatively on a par with what happened in Japan some decades ago– towards the production of goods with a higher added value should increase exchanges with zones of greater purchasing power16, or 13 “Arctic Sea Lanes Likely To Open In Coming Years, Hagel Says En Route To Halifax”, RTT News, 22 November 2013. http://www.rttnews.com/2228564/arctic-sea-lanes-likely-to-open-in-coming- years-hagel-says-en-route-to-halifax.aspx?type=cn 14 REINOSO, José, “El cambio climático abre una nueva ruta comercial para China”, El País, 12 August 2013. http://sociedad.elpais.com/sociedad/2013/08/12/actualidad/1376323504_756460.html 15 HUMPERT, Malte y RASPOTNIK, Andreas. “China in the ‘Great White North’”.17 August 2012.Long Posts.http://www.europeangeostrategy.org/2012/08/china-great-white-north/ 16 The activity of the main countries of the Far East over the past few months in relation to the Arctic is hardly surprising. In this regard see McBEATH, Jerry, “East Asia and the Arctic: Alaskan and American Perspectives”, Centre for International Governance Innovation, December 2013; YOUNG, Kil Park, “Arctic Prospects and Challenges from a Korean Perspective”, Centre for International Governance Innovation, December 2013; OHNISHI, Fujio, “The Process of Formulating Japan’s
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