437 Javier Del Valle Melendo Water as a strategic resource... Hence, countries with arid climates are no more inclined towards conflict than humid ones and it was even found that international cooperation increased during droughts. Indeed, no causal link was found between any of the variables: democracies were as prone to conflict as autocracies; rich countries as much as poor ones, densely populated countries as much as sparsely populated ones and large nations as much as small ones. Carius et al 44 argue that conflict is not the inevitable outcome of scarcity. When Oregon State University researchers looked closely at water management practices in arid countries, they found institutional capacity was the key to success. Naturally arid countries cooperate on water: to live in a water-scarce environment, people adapt to it by developing institutional strategies: formal treaties, informal working groups or generally warm relations45. They found that the likelihood of conflict increased significantly if two factors came into play: • First, conflict is more likely if the basin’s physical or political setting undergoes a large or rapid change, such as the construction of a dam, an irrigation scheme or territorial realignment. • Second, conflict is more likely if existing institutions are unable to absorb and effectively manage that change. Seeing as it is impossible to even briefly analyse all the current hotbeds of tension, let us take a look at the more significant ones. http://revista.ieee.es/index.php/ieee The Middle East The region has a semi-arid climate, with arid and desert zones in some areas. Political instability has been a constant in the region since the mid-20th century, mainly on account of the Arab-Israeli conflict following the creation of the State of Israel after World War II and the absence of a Palestinian state. 44 CARIUS, A., Dabelko, G. D. AND Wolf, A. T. Water, Conflict, and Cooperation. ECSP Report, No. 10, pp. 60–66. 2004. 45 Kramer A., Wolf A., Carius A., Dabelko G. Managing Water Conflict and Cooperation. Op cit, p 9.
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