I N T E R N A T I O N A L A N A L Y S I S
The economic crisis, movement restrictions and precarious
health conditions further complicate the situation of those
who flee their homes in search of a better life
COVID-19
and irregular migration
Lieutenant Colonel Alberto Lens
Private Office of the Undersecretary of Defence for Political Affairs
NO one doubts anymore that the health crisis caused by
the SARS-CoV-2 disease is not only the most serious one
suffered by this generation so far, but also the toughest since
the one at the beginning of the 20th century known as the
Spanish flu. That pandemic a century ago infected around 500 million
people, that is, approximately one third of the world’s population at that
time, and it is estimated that it killed between 17 and 50 million people
from March 1918 to March 1920, in three diferent waves.
The current pandemic is still far from those figures, but its
impact is enormous and no continent, except Antarctica, has been
unaffected by its dramatic consequences. At the time of writing
these lines, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates
11,669,259 confirmed cases and a death toll of 539,906 worldwide.
In order to stop this disease and to try to prevent a spread
similar to the one of a hundred years ago, a number of measures
have had to be taken, which have also put the world economy in
quarantine. This simultaneous freezing of productive activities in all
parts of the planet is also unprecedented. Proof thereof is the fact
that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the world
economy will contract by 4.9 per cent in 2020, a downturn of almost
7.8 per cent compared to 2019. As if this were not enough for us
to worry about, the IMF also reports that there is a substantial risk
of continued economic recession until 2021, thus we could now be
facing the greatest crisis since the Second World War.
As a result of this contraction of economic activity, some
estimates indicate that between 40 and 60 million people will
fall into the pit of extreme poverty. In fact, COVID-19 is likely to
cause the first increase in global poverty since 1998. Among all the
regions in the world, sub-Saharan Africa will be the hardest hit by
the worsening living conditions of the population. In addition to the
effects on health and the economy, this pandemic is having a very
negative impact on education, as 70 per cent of students around
the world are being affected by school closures.
GLOBAL CRISIS
If we examine this impending economic crisis from the point of
view of migration, the prospects look even more gloomy, since it is
common knowledge that migrants tend to be particularly vulnerable
in times of increased unemployment and high inflation which,
according to an assessment carried out by the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), are precisely the
most urgent economic risks faced by migrant receiving countries.
In this regard, the World Bank estimates that overall global
30 Revista Española de Defensa August 2020